Tuesday, March 13, 2012

It's the economy, stupid

So I started wondering a bit about the state of the economy in EVE right now. There were some posts on FHC musing about the amount of ISK flowing into the economy right now, and since CCP Diagoras was kind enough to tweet a bunch of stats, I decided to do some math and add it all up. Here it is:

Item Source/Sink Monthly Amount
Wormhole blue books Source $10,430,000,000,000
Incursions Rewards Source $8,566,015,400,900
Mission Rewards Source $2,470,815,985,076
Misson Bonuses Source $2,346,410,541,970
Insurance Payouts Source $3,366,455,121,035
Insurance Costs Sink -$1,618,888,782,680
NPC Bounties Source $32,083,329,999,805
NPC Sell Orders Sink -$13,000,000,000,000
Transaction Taxes* Sink -$2,375,100,000,000
Broker Fees* Sink -$2,607,100,000,000
LP Store* Sink -$6,331,570,000,000
PI Construction* Sink -$627,850,000,000
Clones* Sink -$910,600,000,000
Office Rental* Sink -$488,650,000,000
War Fees* Sink -$149,350,000,000
Repair Bills* Sink -$287,100,000,000
PI NPC Taxes* Sink -$741,820,000,000
Sov Bills* Sink -$809,100,000,000
Contract Brokers Fee* Sink -$301,600,000,000
Contract Sales Tax* Sink -$324,800,000,000






Total
$28,689,498,266,106


Anything with a * is based on a single day for February, everything else is a full month's data from Diagoras.

Since there were 29 days in February this year, this comes out to almost exactly 1 trillion ISK per day entering the economy. Because CCP no longer publishes QENs, we don't have any recent data to compare this to, but in the last published QEN (for the 4th quarter of 2010), the rate was 0.38 trilion ISK per day, or a little over 1/3 of the current rate. Subscriber numbers were lower then, but not by much. The QEN puts the monthly NPC bounty amounts at about 24 trillion ISK, compared to 32 trillion now. This accounts for about 0.27 trillion ISK per day, or about half of the difference. The rest is accounted for by Incursions.

28 comments:

  1. Replies
    1. Nope, my bad. Fixed now, so you look like a crazy person!

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    2. I still have the URL as evidence -.-

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  2. Are skill books included in your numbers?

    I get the very real sense that with fewer and fewer newer players playing EVE, the use of the existing sinks is going down rapidly. Then combine that with all of these more and more experienced players going straight to the highest-value ISK sources and you might have a problem...

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    1. Yes, they are. They were 6.9 trillion of the 13 trillion, with BPOs making up 4.7 trillion.

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  3. Probably the first legitimate information regarding potential Incursions rebalancing I've seen besides the whiny "Incursions are BROEKN!!!1!!"

    This definitely makes me realize that I'd really like to see QENs make a reappearance though.

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  4. That table /o\

    At least sort it by something useful.

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    1. It is sorted by the order that Diagoras tweeted stuff in!

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  5. I find the incursion reward amount surprisingly low.

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  6. Whoa, blue books account for a significant chunk of isk O.O
    Is this normal considering only 5% of people live in wormhole?

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    1. Wormholes are very high risk. Most of those blue books are coming from C5s and C6s, and the folks in those holes are at risk of having their POSes and ships attacked. What percentage of people do you think participate in incursions? 1%? 2%? Those guys are making nearly as much (remember, this isn't including the value of the CONCORD LP they get) at basically no risk.

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    2. Two Step, what's the average isk/hour (per person) you get while doing sites in a C5?

      If I account for salvaging, I was getting around 70mil/hour on average for doing C2 sites (Only when I solo optimally - no alts). I'd say 75% of that is from nanoribbons.
      C2's are pretty dangerous to. The last two times we had to fight for our wrecks because people came in. Had to dodge a few traps there.

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    3. Wormholes can be reasonably safe, but they are unforgiving if you grow complacent.

      For example, don't assume that your static links will remain unvisited and closed. Pop your head through, and if you do not like what you see you can either collapse them (for temporary safety) or draw them to the brink of collapse (for longer term safety). A wormhole with a tiny amount of mass left is a good thing; so long as you see that, the invaders' options are limited.

      Don't rely on the dscan. It is a helpful tool, but it's short-range and can offer only a small amount of reaction time if things go poorly. Have an alt deploy combat scanners and leave them out; this can keep an eye out for new wormholes and unfamiliar ships. Industrials are great for this; what else are they using all that CPU for?

      Have buddies. This is where your C2 does you an injustice. It just support that many people, so just one or two roving pirates is a risk. In a larger wormhole with more activity, it raises the threshold for a useful number of invaders.

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    4. Don't forget that wormhole ISK income is limited in a few ways.

      First off all wormhole sites disappear from the system when completed. If you run out of sites (happens sooner then you'd expect) you may have to wait days for new ones to spawn.

      Secondly, especially in the higher class wormholes, you can't do anything alone, it takes a coordinated effort of a sizable group to complete the sites. Not to mention the logistical effort it takes to stay afloat in a wormhole system.

      Last but not least, risk, I do realize that you can run sites in your neighboring (static) wormhole, and cycle the hole after it's been cleared, but running sites next door poses a significantly greater risk then in your home system. It also limits your ability to do capital escalation (increased income) due to mass restrictions.

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    5. You said that Incursion runners are only 1-2% of participants in Eve yet Dr E said the numbers were closer to 5% at fanfest... I think also the number of WH residents now are closer to 6% then 5% & growing granted

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  7. Honestly looking at the chart my 1st thought as a wormhole dweller is to get rid of the blue books. It's a nice chunk of isk, but compared to ribbons and what not it's not that important. Most of the money we make is ribbons, and to a lesser extent minerals, gas, and PI.

    As far as wormholes not being risky it depends. Most C1-3 systems with permanent wspace dwellers have HS statics. If your corp is like mine your static is always open, and it can get risky if you connect to an active system. My corp sees intruders several times a week, and at least once a month someone puts a sleeper alt in our hole. When we do mining or run sites we scan the system, and cover all wormholes. Even with this it's not always enough to keep our miners and salvager safe. C4-6 are safer in some respects, but if you have the numbers to repel a major invasion. Again with a C4-6 it depends on your static. If you have a static LS, or Null people will bring a cap fleet. If your static is a C1-3 (almost) no one will bring a cap fleet as it could be stuck for weeks. A C4-6 with static C1 is very safe as the invaders can't bring in anything bigger than battlecruiser unless they are willing to be trapped for weeks. On the downside logistics stuck without Orca access, and it's really hard to bring in a carrier, and harder to get it out.

    People like to point out a handful of strongholds in C6, but they don't understand the amount of effort and manpower required to keep these systems safe. Nor is the isk as good as they think. Sure total isk is great, but it's spread out among a lot of people. If you lack the skills or aren't in the in crowd the isk is pretty poor. The average C6 pilot makes isk more running sites in connected wormholes. I always laugh when a corpmate heads out to the alliance C6, as most of them come back to the corp C3 as the isk is better. Every C6 I've been in either had too many pilots or too few.

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    1. I hear ALOT of diverging numbers about how much is to be made from sleeper sites... some say its a 40/60 cut between ribbons & blue books others its 70/30 ribbons over blue books... I guess it depends how deep down the rabbits hole you are for which one is more progitable?

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  8. It's missing NPC Corp tax rate on players still in the newbie corps.

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  9. Anything from the Fanfest impact this analysis?

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    1. No, though I did talk to Dr. Eyjo about it some. He was more in favor of adding sinks instead of removing faucets

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    2. appears CCP Soundwave though is in favor of PvE ISK cuts with a standard 10% across the board. He's already done that with Incursions & threatens to do it with Bounties... are mission rewards & WH books next?

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  10. Read the devblog yesterday about botters being banned and several trillion in assets being confiscated. At the time I thought "holy crap TRILLIONS of ISK!??!" but this puts it into some perspective.

    Would the botters in question be botting actual ISK faucets like ratting bounties? Or would they be doing "money circulation" activities like mining? i.e. would these trillion ISK banhammerings affect the money supply, or just the circulation of money?

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    1. Probably most of the botters were ratting/missioning, though some were market bots and some were miners. We probably won't know what percentage of each though.

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  11. Wonder what that graph looks like now. Pity CCP Diagoras left the company.

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  12. Lets smash the game and revert all ISK wallets to zero, and then remove all rat bounties and mission ISK rewards.

    Tell me where ISK is going to come from for people trying to sell ore on the market. Where is the isk going to come from for buying those rare skill books? Where is the isk going to come from for trading for those T2 blueprints, or even buying skillbooks from NPCs?

    Those isk sources exist because they have to. Their existence ensure more people will eventually be able to buy more ore from highsec miners.

    ISK only comes from game mechanics. It doesn't come from player interaction.

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